Is Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) a value play ? Not yet

Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) long term quarterly chart ;
1) According to Yahoo Finance ; forward PE is 26 !
2) Market cap is 117 B, Revenue (latest) is 187 B ; would love to see the same revenue with a market cap below 90 B :)
3) See that long term support level (see chart) ; am I dreaming ?
4) Toyota is preparing a recall of its Prius model
5) How many lawsuits are out there ?
Patience, we may soon get there :)
PS : They'll fix the problem, Toyota is still a great company, give them some time

Market opinion

Friday's candle reversal (seen in most ETFs out there as well as the SP 500 and the Q's), followed by increased volume will probably be sending us higher to test the 50 days exp MA.
The 50 days exp MA (see SP 500 or QQQQ) is now our MAIN resistance level.
I am buying ? No, at least not yet.
Observing is probably 90% of the game :)

Conflict of interest ?

Trends Tendances is a financial magazine published in Belgium

How can they nominate a Bank such as UBS for the Private Banking award of 2009 ?

But of course, UBS buys full ads in that magazine constantly ..... mmmm

An award for UBS ? After all they have done in 2009 ?

No wonder people trust financial bloggers these days ......

What are most trading systems telling us ?

Just in case you ask me what systems I use , visit the following sites ;
Tradestation
Metastock (Equis.com)
PS : No, I am not being paid to promote them :)
Ok, what are most trading systems telling us ?
If you read the past 20 to 30 blog posts, you'll notice that I have turned bearish, issuing lots of "warning signals".
Like most people, I read the financial news.
Chinese bubble, PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) daily news kept on sending us lots of bad vibes out there.
Most trading systems (no matter what settings you are using), kept on telling you to sell, sell, sell ....
What do I do when my trading system tells me to sell ? I try to figure out a price target.
A few days ago, I was expecting to see the SP 500 go into a "wider channel" ; by doing so, it will allow us to buy the SP 500 in a real "oversold condition". It will also allow us to buy it at a normal PE ratio ! (Yes people, I do use fundamentals first !).
Banks will suffer ; specially banks holding bonds from those PIIGS countries ; now here comes my biggest fear ; if the PIIGS are being crashed , what other emerging countries are about to go bust ??
Some will consider this sell off as an opportunity to buy on the dip.
I am hoping for an extreme dip :)
You know what the hardest thing is ? Sitting it out, and waiting to pull the buy trigger.
What is on my mind right now ?
Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs ETF (FAS) ; Will wait for price/volume reaction right below $55 before buying.

Gold chart update

Pay attention to these facts ;
That fake move
The "last support level"
1) PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ) ; Higher lows pattern (Since Dec 7), confirms a bullish reversal ; Re entry is right above $14 on increased volume.
2) SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) ; Raise stop to 107.5 !
3) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) ; Real damage if it dips below $41 ; re entry is right above $44 (I doubt it will rise above it)

Euro Dollar chart analysis, most probable scenario

Euro Dollar chart analysis, most probable scenario ;
I am often asked what my opinion is regarding the Euro Dollar.
I prefer to explain it with a clear picture :)
1) First, notice the clear red down trend (it will dictate the next move)
2) Based on "recent news" (Greece, Portugal, etc ....) I see the "Blue Arrow" as the "most" probable scenario
Target is 1.3000 (May to June)

Apple Inc. (AAPL), expecting a violent break out

Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart update ;
Yes, expecting a "violent price break out"
Tight price channels patterns tend to react violently ; notice also that most traders do see the $190 price level as a key support.
PS : Do not attempt to "short" Apple ; not with these great fundamentals

SP 500 warning signal

SP 500 chart analysis with clear warning signal.
I posted a chart of the SP 500 several days ago mentioning the fact that I am expecting a wider channel pattern ; I maintain this opinion.
Pay attention to those numbers on the chart ; (1 = tight channel, can only break out hard) , (2 = bearish reversal, fake move) , (3 = last exit point, right below 1075)
Notice that we are also now facing resistance from its 50 days moving average (simple or exp).

A new investment scam out there

Being an ex Swiss based Private Banker, I've seen my shares of scams (mostly coming from various African nations, and Eastern Europe).
This latest one is busy moving around in Europe.
An ex client calls me and asks me to attend a sales presentation (without mentioning my backround).
My client is presented an amazing offer ; 100% return in 4 weeks ! (Guaranteed)
Trick 1) ; Client has to show that he has at least 1 M $USD (with due diligence done on the source of the funds)
Trick 2) ; Client's funds are never removed from his bank (they show you their contracts, urgent you to show your lawyers, and bankers).
Trick 3) ; Bank issues a confirmation that client has the 1 M $ (clean money)
Trick 4) ; The salesmen then pretends that traders in London will borrow money based on that "confirmation document" and invested in the Forex market ; he then pretends that my client will collect 100% in 4 weeks.
Salesmen usually look above 40, well dressed.
Where is the trick ? Psychological ..........
1) Safety ; they repeat over and over that your money stays with you
2) They call you everday (after market close), and tell you what they traded :)
3) After 4 weeks of daily calls, you are so pumped up that you want your 100% NOW.
4) Before paying you, they ask you to pay the traders, and the salesmen commissions.
5) You pay 5% ....... then ? Nothing comes .......
Pure psychology ......
Pass this info around
PS : your friends will be in denial at first ; telling you that your are jealous ....

Should you buy Nokia Corporation (NOK) ?

Nokia Corporation (NOK) weekly chart ;
1) Nokia seems to be forming a "confirmed channel pattern"
2) Long channels = huge break outs
3) Should you buy now ? No, at least not yet.
4) Ok, I just bought the latest Nokia for my wife's birthday : why ? Lots of great tools for a fraction of the price of most other brands.
5) We need more "improved" news, a gap up on huge volume (again)
6) $16 is our key trigger
Want to know what the NEXT pattern will look like ?
Imagine the following ; price zooms up above $18 (on no news), price pulls back (we just got the good news), price finds a base, then zooms up again above $18
Just told you what the next ABC pattern will look like on Nokia :)

PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQQ) trading plan

PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQQ) trading plan ;
1) Main trend is clearly broken (do not attempt to draw 10,000 trend lines, this is the main one).
2) Focus on the "last support level"
3) If price breaks above $44, it needs to do it on a huge volume and if possible ; a gap up.

Australian Dollar update

On Jan 17, I published the following post regarding the Australian Dollar (versus the $USD Dollar) ; saying that a break below 0.9100 was "highly probable"

Why was it highly probable ?

Long highly volatile pattern, breaking out of a main trend tend to warn you of a trend change.

What next ?

See support level on the chart ; a break below will cause a major sell off ....

Bullish reversal possible ? Of course ; Use 0.8900 as a confirmed re entry.

Valassis Comm, Inc. (VCI) update

On Dec 10, I posted a chart of Valassis Comm, Inc (VCI) with the ABC pattern.
It was a typical case study for the ABC pattern , mixing a reliable chart pattern with
fundamentals and news events.
VCI jumped up today over 17%
Once again, you can thank Tim Dowd for spotting that ABC pattern :)

Market opinion

Is the Shangai Stock Exchange still a reliable leading indicator ?
It was in April 2009 (see old post on the blog search) ; it did lead us higher.
What about the Baltic Dry Index ? It also did confirm a bull market in April 2009 !
Now what ?
Shangai is clearly below its "3000" key support level, about to re test the 2750 ??
The Baltic Dry Index lost 11% last week ..... (still in higher lows pattern)
What about other Asian markets ?
The Kospi (South Korea) is facing a double top but the pattern is still bullish.
Thailand SET index (also in a double top) is still in a clear uptrend.
Australia (AORD) gave us a fake break out, but still in an uptrend
Taiwan and Singapore are still in a clear uptrend ....
What about commodities ? The CRB lost over 3% last week (but the uptrend is still intact).
Crude oil ? Long term uptrend is still intact .....
So ?
Ok, gut feeling here ;
Shangai was probably clearly overbought (so was Crude Oil, the Baltic Dry Index, and other major China related commodities).
When markets face your usual retracements, the media needs to find "bad news" : the same media was quite bullish on the exact opposite reasons a few weeks ago.
I am expecting a major bullish reversal ; it will probably come from Shangai :)

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) ; Let's call this "The most improved ETF"
1) This chart pattern is "quite" reliable (Bullish reversal)
2) Raise your stop !
3) Main question for next week ; is the Euro, Gold and Oil oversold ?
4) Are markets oversold ?

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) chart analysis & trading plan ;
1) Chart patterns do NOT predict future price action !
2) Patterns will help you "define" what price levels will lead to a probable move.
3) A rise above 107.5$ will give us the blue scenario
4) A break below 102.5$ will lead to a "panic sell"
5) The pink scenario means that while Gold is still in a long term uptrend, price will try to find a support level that could give us a channel pattern. Then ? Watch the Dollar !

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) chart analysis ;
1) Clear price break down on higher volume
2) Next target ? That recent GAP ?
3) Expected scenario ; see that green arrow, bouncing above the GAP level

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan ;
Good thing I was stopped out ......... (see latest message on AAPL)
Now what ?
Allow Apple to take a rest ; really, allow the market to "digest" the latest news
Trading plan in mind ?
1) Another fall below $190
2) Then, followed by a price break out above $190, $200 (and higher)
3) The plan is simple ; right now, just do nothing ; allow for a base pattern to take shape.
Buy the break outs ONLY
Expecting at least 5 to 10 days for this scenario to take place
Long term very bullish

SP 500 chart update, time for a channel pattern ?

Quick study of the SP 500 chart ;
Yes, I do use my own version of a trading system ; settings ? Not important, really !
Why ? All systems are based on either break outs, trend following, counter trends ....etc ...
Systems have to fit your character ; since I have no idea what character my readers are, I suggest you test several of them (avoid back testing that fits well), and you'll eventually find one that just "fits" you.
My character is quite simple ; the picture has to fit the price reaction of news events !
If price does not react to news events or new fundamentals ....... you will just be starring at the wrong picture that will eventually reverse in your face .....
1) Question ; how often do markets trend ? Not often !
2) Question ; how often does the SP 500 gets stuck in price channels ? Very often.
3) The following green arrow shows you what I am expecting ; been saying that quite often recently, but I like to repeat myself :)
4) Yes, I am expecting a HUGE rally thanks to the $USD Dollar.
PS : if you are a long term trend follower, you just have to sit it out patiently and expect the usual draw downs (part of the game) ; and yes, all signals are still very bullish.

The Boeing Company (BA)

The Boeing Company (BA) chart analysis ;
1) The break out early this year with a huge volume increase was a real buy trigger.
2) Price zoomed up, then pulled back to $57.5 (retracement) to find a reliable support level.
3) Price volume action confirms long term buy signals (LT weekly)
My only worry ? A possible parabolic rise, so we need to see Boeing form a higher channel before moving up again in a few months.
LT price target ? $90 ! (around 2011)