Fake crude oil move caused by rogue trader ?

Was that fake move in crude oil caused by a rogue trader ?
The Financial Times reports ;
"The boss of Steve Perkins, the broker at the heart of a rogue trading scandal that rocked oil markets this week, issued a bullish report suggesting prices could go higher only hours after Mr Perkins made the unauthorised trades that caused prices to spike."
You can read the full article on the Financial Times

Back to the chart ; what did that trader see ? A break out above the previous resistance @ 73 $ ?
Of course, he "had to issue" some bullish reports to "CONFIRM" the break out ....

Is the VIX ready to pop up ?

Focusing on the VIX (volatility) indicator
Watching the 30 levels next week.
Time to focus on inverse ETFs ?

Is the Silver ETF (SLV) oversold ?

Looking at the Silver ETF (SLV) ;
1) We can see the fake move above the "C" trigger (ABC pattern)
2) We can also assume that the "initial break out" (in blue, see chart) was the start of the pattern with the "A" level standing at around $16
3) Are we now facing a "B" level ?
Gut feeling ; Silver is probably oversold, expecting a bounce up
Next ? channel pattern .....

Baltic Dry Index reversal ?

I often pay attention to the Baltic Dry Index, using a simple 20 days moving average.
Its been reliable in the past, spoting reversals. I use it as a leading indicator.
See that reversal signal ?

Tour de France

I did this cartoon 2 years ago ........ :)
I use this site to follow the "Tour de France"

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario

Quick look at Apple Inc. (AAPL) ;
I often draw "probable scenarios", then print it, and place them on my wall.
One thing is clear, resistance @ 154 $
Warning signal is right @ 135 $
I "favor" the blue scenario ; unless we get some nasty fundamental/economic news where the red scenario might occur.
Green scenario ? I doubt it ; Apple Inc. (AAPL) has been rising "too fast".
Start to pay attention to RIMM and PALM (back from the dead)

Thailand Set index chart analysis

Thailand Set Index ;
1) After this "parabolic rise", a sideway pattern was expected
2) 580 levels is now our immediate support
3) A close below 560 should trigger a huge "sell off"
Main trend still bullish but the swine flu and a huge fall in tourism could/might affect growth.

SP 500 chart analysis

Quick look at the SP 500 ;
As mentioned in previous posts, was expecting a pull back (prior to my trip in Asia).
How severe ? Well, it depends on the fundamental news we shall soon get .....
On my trip in Asia, I had the chance to visit many clients who told me quite clearly ; the mess is far from over ........
Inventories are pilling up in warehouses ...........
Importers (outside of Asia) are canceling their orders ......
Banks are still NOT lending .........
Consumers are not spending .......
Hotels are EMPTY .........
So why are those Asian indexes rising ????
Ok, back to the SP 500 ; pay attention to those 880 levels ;
1) A high impact "bad" news could trigger a sell off
2) Light crude oil price reversal is telling us something ????
Stay out ........... fasten your seat belt :)
PS : very sunny and hot in Brussels :)

Gold ETF (GLD) versus the US Dollar chart analysis

This is a weekly chart of the Gold ETF (GLD) versus the $USD Dollar ;
1) In late 86, we noticed a lower highs (Dollar) versus a higher lows (GLD)
2) Peak in Gold (early 08) we did see the Dollar for a bottom with a higher low pattern and a clear break out in Aug 08
3) The divergence in 09 started in April
4) We are now facing a lower highs pattern (Gold) versus a possible $USD Dollar higher lows ?
Gut feeling ; a break below 90 for GLD should send the Dollar above the 81 levels.
These next 2 weeks ; we should be set ......... expecting some wild moves .....
Watch the news ....... some high impact news should trigger some major break out SOON.

UltraShort ETF ProShares (QID), time to buy ?

Time to buy the UltraShort ETF ProShares (QID) ?
Enter, with a stop loss at $32.5
See targets on the chart

Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)

Expected scenario on the Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) ; using the $RIFIN
Financial 1000 index (see first chart)
Expected scenario ; a sharp sell off in the $RIFIN, allowing us to buy FAS probably below $7.5.
As done before, what ever allocation you plan to use for FAS ; buy one step at a time.
Will keep you informed when I buy :)

Great business model

Great business model ; made in Thailand :)
Corns on the BBQ .......
Fruit juices ; fresh, mangos, pineapples ....
Car rentals ......
Cost ? None ....
High profits ....
No stress .....

US Dollar chart index buy signal ?

$USD Dollar chart index ;
1) Another fake move ?
2) 80 levels is clearly our real support level
3) ABC pattern reversal ???
Gut feeling ? We could face a bullish reversal (pay attention to Oil and Gold)
buy signal is right above 81 ; strong buy signal right above "C" ; 82
Meaning ? If that scenario takes place, expect a strong pull back in Gold and Oil ?
Unless of course history means nothing ........
Always expect the unexpected .....

Shangai Stock Exchange Index pull back ?

This is a WEEKLY chart of the Shangai Stock Exchange Index ;
The first ABC pattern in April 2009 confirmed a bullish reversal
Are we now facing a level "A" ?
See the ABC pattern FAQ on your right hand side
Gut feeling ? That uptrend has lasted way too long ....
Expect a pull back to "B" (2750)

Nasdaq chart analysis

Just a quick reminder that the main trend (in blue on the chart) is broken ; why ? the lowest low connects the highest low, prior to the highest high.
Do not draw trendlines "everywhere" .......
1) The Nasdaq has a clear resistance level
2) Raise stop to 1800 if you bought (via an ETF)
Gut feeling ? Expecting a sideway trade, not the type of pattern I like to trade until we get a clear break out. Stay out.

Investing in Thailand

Amazing investments opportunities in Thailand ; Bangkok, Koh Samui, Hua Hin (for golf players).
Prices start at 50,000 Euros (Koh Samui special offers) ; yield is over 7% (via rentals)
Feel free to contact me for more infos

Light crude oil chart update

Quick analysis of light crude oil ;
1) The initial trend was broken ; oil did rise too fast, broke out of this trend and went into a sideway pattern.
2) The main key is to find a "confirmed" support ; we did find one
3) The next obvious target is to break out of this key resistance @ $73 ....
What to focus on ;
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN (DXO) ; huge buy signal above $4.6

Apple Inc. (AAPL) and the ABC pattern

Quick example of the ABC pattern with Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Market update

Greetings from Sunny Bangkok ;
Sold my shares ; Citi (loss), Akamai, and Apple.
Quick trade, not willing to HOLD anything at the moment ...
What am I watching right now ; Qantas Airways said it had canceled orders for 15 Boeing 787 Dreamliners and delayed the delivery of a further 15 aircraft due to turbulent market conditions.
Ok, who else will declare the same thing ???
I am still focusing on the same USUAL Suspects ; Oil, Gold, and the $USD Dollar.
Gut feeling ? Book your profits.
It does NOT feel right .....yet .........

Shopping for bargain stocks

Bought small positions in the following stocks ;
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Citigroup Inc. (C)
Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM)
Why ? Gap convinced me to enter and buy a small position, using the low of yesterday as my stop loss level.
Greetings from Asia where I DO NOT see business improving ........
So use your stops .......